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ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL BOUTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO TITLE BOUT II

I've just received the first round of research from my "hire hand" and it's so shocking that I had to contact him and then do a hundred bouts myself, just to see if my numbers were even close to his . . . and they were off by just a smidgen and my sample bouts were nowhere near as numerous:

Please, please keep these numbers in mind. Now, frankly, I can't use these figures exactly because none of us (well, most of us won't fight nearly the number of bouts used for test purposes. To keep the game enjoyable and not just accurate, I'll have to fudge a bit.

Here were the guidelines for the study:

1. Use a minimum of five major divisions and within those five, be sure to sample the heavyweights and the flyweights so that we can cover the extremes as well as the median.

2. Do a minimum of 25 bouts per division.

3. Select the fighters being examined by a generated random number between 1 and 200 to be sure that we cover not just the best fighters or the worst fighters but a fair sampling throughout the division.

4. MOST IMPORTANT: only count the bouts that were ended by a cut, swelling or disqualification.

Results:

1. 9494 bouts examined. NINE THOUSAND AND ALMOST 500 ON TOP OF THAT!

2. Out of the near 9 1/2 thousand bouts, 148 were stopped on cuts. That's it. 0.02%. CAUTIONARY NOTE: this number doesn't mean that only 148 cuts occurred over the multitude of bouts. There were literally several thousand of those. My take in game terms: allow for relatively frequent cuts, have them directly affect the fighter who is cut (relative to the degree of the cut and # of reopens). However, the vast majority of TKOs are the result of brutal beat downs over "x" number of rounds or from the number of knockdowns that failed to lead to a knockout. Amazing how often the 3-knockdown rule was invoked. Equally amazing at the number of bouts where the 3-knockdown bout wasn't used and 4, 5, 6 knockdowns were permitted before the corner threw in the towel or the ref decided to stop the carnage.

3. Out of the near 9 1/2 thousand bouts, only 20 were directly the result of swelling. That equals 0.0021. Two-hundredths of the time. MITIGATING FACTOR: most of the incidents of swelling led to serious cuts, which in turn led to stoppages. Some of you out there might want to verify this but my discussion with several doctors about the relationship of swelling and cuts indicated a near 90% symbiotic relationship. In boxing/game terms 9 times out of 10 swelling stretches the skin and makes it very susceptible to splitting open (or being cut). However, the opposite is also true! A cut, if not taken cared for (between rounds the application of some type of endswell) the cut will start to show significant swelling around it.

4. Finally, only 0.005 bouts ended in a disqualification. The numbers were 52 times out of the 9494 bouts. Ironically, that's almost twice the number of fights that were ended by swelling (okay, not quite double but I need to get this done so that I can work on a few more lightweights). Out of those 52, FORTY -SEVEN disqualifications came from, in order from high to low, France, England, Germany, Italy and finally, the United States. Actually, the end result doesn't surprise me. Throughout the history of boxing, foreign refs were much more likely to disqualify a fighter for perhaps, just one repeat offense (especially if the offending fighter was from the US). HOWEVER, once again literally thousands - and far more than cuts+swelling+disq. bouts were strongly affected by fouls called during the fight. The number of fights that were lost because of the deduction of points was considerable. Championships were, of course, lost by a fighter being assessed 2 or 3 points lost due to fouls. And that's not considering the number of bouts that would have been lost but were ended by a knockout or tko.

SO MORE KNOCKDOWNS BUT FEWER KNOCKOUTS. MORE CUTS/SWELLING BUT FEWER TKOS. MORE POINTS LOST DUE TO FOULS BUT VERY FEW DISQUALIFICATIONS. That's pretty much my off-the-top of the head take on the numbers.

I think that the above can easily translate into game terms, but I also think that the numbers have to be massaged a bit or all the suspense and fun would go out of the game. I don't mind the fact that Marciano or Hagler were tremendously difficult to stop. Nevertheless, I want SOME chance that another great fighter could pull it off. In the same vein, I also want to be able to see a fighter with a true glass jaw get dropped frequently, especially if he's going against an opponent who's far superior.

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